August 21, 2011

Libya's war close to end, who is next?

It appears the unreported and unofficial war in Libya could be close to an end. It appears, according to mainstream media, rebels are close to the capital and our fearless leader Gaddafi is close to throwing the towel and leave the ring. Regardless of the reliability of this information is clear that strong powers want the war ended and fast.
Together with the latest news from Syria this is indicating we are getting closer to the turning point I was mentioning at the start of the Libyan war.
Once Libya will be under control and it could be a matter of months things will turn nasty, once the Libyan oil will be on the grid again the situation will unravel fast. It seems we are facing a crisis escalation on both the military and financial side, the financial domino both in Europe and the USA is falling and a major rush to get control of Libyan oil reserves is becoming imperative at this point.
To understand this chess game is possible only if we consider the broader picture, the financial crisis, the war in Libya and the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa are all connected pieces of a bigger puzzle.
The reality is that the financial system has reached a terminal stage, leverage is getting harder and harder and cash injection has reached a structural limit, there is not enough money to bailout the black hole of debt created and  peak oil is already here making impossible to go back to growth and inflate ourselves out of this mess.
Growth is not available because the current system has reached the maximum capacity and is deflating fast while debt has reached levels never seen before in history.
There are few options left either declare insolvency and bring the entire system down or go to war and make harsh austerity a war necessity for the population while stealthily bankrupting the western world and all its creditors.
In this situation there is a rush to control and manage the reduced resources available and gain the preservation or well reduced deterioration of the population's standard of life together with a competitive advantage over other nations who are not so blessed of controlling those essential resources.
It is a strategic imperative for every nation to get access by any necessary mean to strategic resources whose lack would bring to an halt the economy and its democracy.
No wonder China is getting very jittery lately although regardless of its strategic links with Iran will not react aside from verbal shows when the situation will escalate.
After all should China lose access to the western world markets and treasuries It would risk economical and social collapse, they will play along with US and EU since they are into the same game, they will get concessions due to their symbiotic relation with the West after all the West still need China's cheap productive capacity but they are caught into the same game all right.
The next target is clearly Syria, which has been thrown into chaos already although with this week clear innuendo from Obama is clearly the next regime to be toppled down as soon as the major Libyan headache will be solved.
The only major variable in this scenario is Turkey, the situation is very volatile at this moment with the confrontation between the Muslim Erdogan's government and the secular Turkish Army, how Turkey, a member of NATO will play this game is a major diplomatic variable to be considered.
One thing is clear Middle East and Central Asia is the prize in this dangerous power game and this could escalate quickly if financial distress will raise in the following months.














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