The key findings of the Deliotte study:
- According to our analysis, the total wealth of millionaire households in the 25 economies included in this study is forecast to grow from $92 trillion in 2011 to $202 trillion in 2020.
- Our study suggests that the rebalancing of global wealth is expected to accelerate over the next decade. Emerging market (EM) economies are likely to prove to be more dynamic in terms of growth rates, creating significant opportunities for wealth managers seeking to gain a share of these potentially lucrative markets. Among emerging markets, China may continue to be the driving force in the growth of millionaire wealth, followed by Brazil and Russia. Of the 25 economies examined in this study, China and South Korea are likely to join the top10 in terms of the total number of millionaires by 2020.
- However, there is a paradox at the heart of this story. According to our study, in spite of the rapid growth of wealth in the EM economies, U.S. and Europe will remain the global centers of wealth over the next decade, in terms of both the amount of wealth held and the number of millionaire households. Our analysis indicates that aggregate wealth of millionaire households in the U.S. in 2020 will likely reach $87 trillion, from $39 trillion in 2011.
- Our forecasts suggest that, in 2020, 43% of the world’s wealth among millionaire households will be in the U.S. Opportunities for growth potentially exist via greater U.S. state penetration. In the U.S., California will likely have the most number of wealthy households, while New Jersey may continue to have the greatest density. The East Coast is likely to see the highest growth rates —New York and Florida together may add 1.5 million new millionaire households by 2020.
- Our forecasts suggest that total wealth among millionaire households will increase from $92 trillion in 2011 to $202 trillion by 2020, a growth of 119%. In emerging markets, the growth over the next decade is potentially quite impressive (260%), significantly outpacing the growth (107%) in developed markets.
According to our study, the total wealth among millionaire households of the 25 economies in this study generally exhibit little change in their ranking over the next decade. Emerging market economies will likely see some upward movement in rank (e.g., China).
In terms of the total number of millionaire households, emerging markets are likely to see an upward movement in rank, with some economies rising meaningfully (South Korea, Mexico) and others dropping slightly (Taiwan, Turkey).
The proportion of the ultra-wealthy in relation to total households in 2020 is likely to be the highest in Singapore.