February 23, 2011

China energy demand set to create conflicts

A pumpjack in TexasImage via Wikipedia
Is it clear that future demand for resources, most notably oil is set to trigger conflicts and global tensions in the immediate future. How the West will react to a growing competitor like China which threaten to gobble up the future production is a major key in establishing how the world will evolve in the following years.
At the current rates of growth of US and China oil imports and consumption, China's oil consumption will match US oil imports by 2016-2017. China's oil imports and consumption will reach parity with the US by 2021-2022, at which point the US and China will together consume 60% of peak global oil production (assuming 73-75M bbl/day) versus 37-38% today, leaving the rest of the world to adapt to receiving the remaining 40% (35-40% less than is received today).
However, at the same trend rates of imports and consumption, the US and China will consume 80% of global oil production by the late '20s to early '30s, leaving the rest of the world just 20% of supplies, and China is on track to consume the entire world's oil production by the '40s-'50s; needless to say, this cannot occur.
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